It will be a hard winter for the EUR. There is an element of hysteria in the headlines about Ukraine, Russia and the US that clouds sober analysis and although some form of confrontation seems inevitable it could end up on a much smaller scale than the media makes it out to be. Still, the tensions are real, and the business impact will be felt in European countries, consequently weakening the euro.
There could be several fallouts. If we assume that there will be some form of conflict but without an actual NATO response the least that will happen will be an escalation of sanctions on Russia. This will likely be followed by a disruption to trade, investment flows and the supply of energy and raw materials into Europe.
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