US: a presidential tete-a-tete
The long-awaited presidential tete-a-tete finally happens this week, with investors anxious for some positive trade war progress.
Though June has seen the markets distracted by price-lifting dovishness from the likes of the Federal Reserve and ECB that has only come after May’s heavy losses, caused by Trump escalating the US-China trade war with another round of tariffs on Chinese goods. This week, however, sees Donald meet his Beijing-counterpart in a much-anticipated meeting in Osaka. Investors will want to hear positive chatter in the run up to face-off, and then, obviously, some tangible progress the other side.
That the G20 doesn’t begin until Friday does complicate matters slightly, meaning the markets will have to make do with the string of data the US has planned. Tuesday sees the CB consumer confidence number, while the latest durable goods orders arrive on Wednesday. Thursday has the final Q1 GDP reading – which currently stands at 3.1% – before Friday wraps up with the Fed-favourite core PCE prince index, alongside the revised UoM consumer sentiment and Chicago PMI.
UK: It’s all about the Tory leadership race
It’s a horribly back-weighted week for the UK. In fact, the only real data of note is all saved for Friday, when both the current account and final first quarter GDP readings are released. The last Q1 estimate came in at 0.5%, so the pound will be hoping that isn’t revised lower.
Beyond that, the Tory leadership race will continue, with Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt now making their away around the country as they try and convince the Tory party to let them inherit the Premiership from Theresa May.
As for the corporate calendar, it is BLAND. Carpetright on Tuesday, Stagecoach Group on Wednesday and Greene King on Thursday appear to be the highlights.
Eurozone: Inflation numbers on Friday
Like the UK, the Eurozone isn’t offering up a lot worth talking update, at least until Friday, when the region-wide inflation figures are released. With that in mind, the DAX et al. might end up spending the week on a US-led leash.
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