We return with our regular look at what lies ahead for markets. Every year we include some forecasts for our subscribers, based on what we are hearing and seeing in the market. While we'd like to be able to predict a year of steady growth, there are still many geopolitical factors that will be affecting financial markets in 2024. Here are our 2024 predictions.
UK and US elections
It is already being called the Year of Elections, with an astonishing number of countries going to the polls. First up is the election in Taiwan, which Asia pundits believe will play a big role in determining China's future cross-straits strategy and indeed its relations with the US. This could go dramatically wrong for everyone, but having just returned from Taiwan myself where I got the chance to briefly meet a local politician, I get the feeling that the hysteria is being over-cooked by the media.
Even if we avoid this potential political iceberg, the US elections will dominate the agenda for a lot of the year, with Donald Trump still looking likely to displace Joe Biden in the White House. This will be, I believe, one of the most critical elections the US has faced since its foundation, as Trump - and his opponents - are testing the constitutional limits of US democracy, and the authority of state and federal courts. All that said, Trump is still on course to win the presidential election in November and I can't see the Democrats stopping him.
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