They seem to come around so quickly – once again we are heading into a nonfarm Friday, with questions to answer following last month’s disappointment.
US: Will nonfarm disappoint once again?
Last month’s nonfarm jobs report was a shocker – and yet, at the same time, was perhaps what the markets were after.
Analysts had been expecting 990,000 jobs to have been added in April, building on the 916,000 gained in March. Instead, the reading for April came in at just 266,000, with March’s number revised lower to 770,000.
A huge miss, and one that brings with it questions over the consistency of the US economic recovery. However, it also temporarily assuaged fears surrounding a potential change in Federal Reserve monetary policy, since Jerome Powell is after a ‘string’ of strong jobs reports before considering tapering the bank’s current stimulus package.
Heading into Friday and consensus forecasts for May are aiming for 621,000, something of a mid-point between what was produced and what was expected in April.
As for the unemployment rate, following an unexpected increase from 6.0% to 6.1% – the first month-on-month rise in over a year – estimates point to a drop to 5.9%.
Average hourly earnings, meanwhile, are set to shrink back to 0.2%, following last month’s spike to a 4-month peak of 0.7%.
Before that and the ISM and final Markit manufacturing PMIs are on Tuesday, following on Thursday by the services PMIs, ADP nonfarm unemployment change figure, and the usual jobless claims. Friday then also sees the latest factory orders data.
UK: Covid variant headlines and lockdown easing plans
Following Monday’s Bank Holiday, the UK markets get stuck into the final manufacturing PMI reading for May on Tuesday, followed on Wednesday by the net lending to individuals and mortgage approvals figures, the final services PMI on Thursday and the construction PMI on Friday.
Investors may also be conscious of any headlines related to the spread of the ‘Indian’ covid-19 variant, and what that may mean for the UK’s lockdown-easing plans throughout the rest of June.
Eurozone
Like the rest of the West, the Eurozone wakes to its latest manufacturing PMIs on Tuesday, alongside the German unemployment change data. Wednesday then has the region-wide PPI figure, with Thursday bringing the services PMIs, and Friday the month’s retail sales reading.
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